US Dollar Index down & S&P down (21 Oct 09)

This is probably the worse scenario you can have with the market. S&P was down by about 0.9% and dollar index was down about 0.5%(with EURUSD breaking 1.5). This may signifified that reducing the dollar may have little effect on pushing up at the market at this point. So what will happen next when this happen?

Why I use S&P500 to find out market direction?

I always use S&P500 to find out the market direction. The reason is S&P500 is based on 500 large-cap common stocks actively traded in the United States. If you study statistics, you will know that the more samples that you have collected, the more accurate is your result. Dow and STI index only has 30 components. So if one or two stocks go up or down by big margin, the index will be affected greatly even though the rest of the stock are unchanged.

S&P 500 daily chart (Nov 08 to Oct 09)

The above S&P 500 shows that we might be hitting on the resistance line (blue line). The index keeps increasing from Sep 09 till now, but the volume keeps decreasing. So is it dued for a correction soon?


Let us looks at the weekly chart, S&P 500 is going to hit the major resistance line (blue straight line). You can see that the index is increasing with volume decreasing(see red line).

With these two charts, do you think the index will still go up without any major correction? I remembered what Sun Tzu say, if the odd of winning is low, don't bother to fight. So do you want to risk by buying up now?

True value of S&P 500 based on dollar index (1988 - 2009)

I have drawn up the chart to see the effect of multiplying the S&P500 and dollar index. My purpose is to show why non US investor must know the Dollar Index if they are buying US shares. US Dollar Index is the measurement of US Dollar value compared to other major currencies.

To simplify the chart, I am using one value for each year taken from the beginning of the year. Please note that I have used Oct 09 value for year 2010. Let make a assumption that the movement of your share price is tied to S&P500.

We can see that during year 2001, the product of S&P500 and dollar index is the highest. It means that if you are a non US investor, you will buy or sell US shares at the peak. In 2007, we can see the S&P500 have reach 1438 which is higher than 2001, but the product of S&P500 and dollar index is lower than that in year 2001. It means that if you buy US shares in year 2001 and sell share in 2007, you are in fact making a loss.

The chart also shows that the value of US shares is getting weaker since 2001. The recent bear rally has only reached the value during year 2003. So don't you think US shares are still considered very cheap now? The question now is will it get cheaper or it is worth to buy US shares?

Taiji Symbol VS S&P 500 (25 years chart)

The above is the 25 year chart for S&P 500
Based on my Taiji Symbol analysis:
Red portion: Body of white fish
Blue portion: Eye of white fish
Green portion: Head of white fish
Yellow portion: Tail of black fish.
So what is next? Will body of black fish come next? If that happen, the index may break 600, and that is terrible.

There is a Technical Term called "M pattern" which is showing in the chart and that is a very bearish pattern. After "M pattern" it will be followed by a "V" pattern up (Currently forming), and next will be a "A pattern" down.

Taiji Symbol VS S&P 500 Chart (Sep 07 - Oct 09)

The above shows the S&P chart from the start of current bear market to now. For Oct 07 to May 08, signified the start of the bear market(tail of the black fish of the Taiji Symbol). For May 08 to Mar 09, signified the bear market is in the mid stage(body of the black fish). For Mar 09 to now, signified that some recovery on the way(Eye of the black fish). My guess the last stage will be a downtrend that will bring the index lower than Mar 09(Head of the black fish). This is just my own interpretation, so there is no right or wrong for it.

This symbol tells me that everything will have a slow start, accelerated growth and peak. Remember the important point is slow start, whether it is a bear or bull market. If you can identify the start points, you will be slowly be rich. For market that goes up or down too quickly, there will be a reverse in direction in no time. If you see that, it is important to clear your postion(whether long or short) before the reverse in direction.